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02/04/2012 - College Park, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fifth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels play their fourth road game in the last six outings, as they head to College Park for an ACC showdown with the Maryland Terrapins.
Roy Williams' Tar Heels are sitting atop the ACC standings, tied with Duke and Florida State at 6-1. The team has won four straight since suffering a humbling loss at Florida State a couple of weeks ago. Most recently, UNC dispatched Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, 68-53.
Mark Turgeon's first season in College Park has certainly come with its ups and downs. The Terrapins are five games over .500 on the year, but one game under that mark (3-4) in-conference. Maryland has dropped four of its last five games, including a heart-breaking 90-86 double-overtime affair at Miami earlier this week.
Maryland has won four of the last six meetings in this series, but North Carolina still holds a sizable 115-57 lead overall. UNC has lost five of the last seven meetings in College Park.
The Tar Heels have recently lost starting guard Dexter Strickland to a season- ending knee injury, but with superior talent and depth, they will be able to assuage the loss. North Carolina enters this contest as the top offensive team in the nation, averaging 84.1 ppg on a healthy .471 shooting. UNC has also carried over its strong play to the defensive end, holding foes under 40 percent from the floor (.384) and leading the nation with a +11.8 rebounding margin. The team is fueled by the best frontcourt in the country, with Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller all playing at an All-American level. Barnes has the ability to score from anywhere on the floor, averaging 17.3 ppg. Zeller is next in line at 15.0 ppg and is almost averaging a double- double with 9.7 rpg. Henson is averaging a double-double, with 14.2 points and 10.0 rebounds per game. Sophomore point guard Kendall Marshall is tasked with getting the ball to the right people and is as good as it gets nationally in that regard, averaging 9.5 assists per game (second nationally).
Zeller was unstoppable in the win over Wake Forest this week, posting 18 points and 18 rebounds. Henson also had a double-double with 14 points and 12 boards. Marshall got into the act as well as a scorer with 14 points, while dishing out six assists, while Barnes completed the top scorers with 13 points. UNC won handily, despite shooting a poor .310 from the floor overall, including .211 from behind the arc. The Tar Heels made up for it by outrebounding the Demon Deacons 55-40, including grabbing 22 offensive boards.
Despite having the conference's top scorer, the Terrapins lack the kind of offensive depth needed to win games against the upper echelon in the ACC. Maryland comes into this game averaging a modest 69.4 ppg on .432 shooting. The problem is, that the team is yielding 69.9 ppg. Terrell Stoglin has done all he can to keep the Terps competitive. The 6-1 sophomore is averaging an ACC-best 21.8 ppg and is responsible for more than half (58) of the team's three-pointers to date (105). Backcourt mate Sean Mosley is a distant second in the scoring column at 10.1 ppg. Junior forward James Padgett (9.0 ppg, team-high 5.9 rpg) is the top option up front.
Maryland came all the way back from a 16-point point second-half deficit to force two overtimes at Miami, but was unable to get the win, falling by four points to the Hurricanes. The setback spoiled a career-night for Stoglin, who was 9-of-26 from the floor, with six three-pointers and a perfect 9-of-9 from the free-throw line, to finish with a career-high 33 points. Alex Len added 11 points, seven rebounds and four blocked shots in the loss.
<< Marquee matchup pits Jayhawks against Tigers
Columbia, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The most anticipated game in the Big 12 has
finally arrived, as top-10 foes Kansas and Missouri collide in Columbia, with
positioning atop the conference standings at stake.
The eighth-ranked Jayhawks lead the
<< Sixth-ranked Bears battle Cowboys in Big 12 affair
Stillwater, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The sixth-ranked Baylor Bears will attempt
to stay within striking distance in the Big 12 Conference, as they invade
Stillwater this afternoon for a conference matchup with the Oklahoma State
Cowboys at Gallagh
<< Waves hope to crash down on 24th-ranked Bulldogs
Malibu, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - West Coast Conference foes meet in Malibu
tonight, as the 24th-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs pay a visit to the Pepperdine
Waves.
Gonzaga was recently re-admitted into the AP Top-25 after winning four in a
row from J
<< Hoosier State rivals square off in West Lafayette
West Lafayette, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of in-state rivals jockeying for
position in the competitive Big Ten Conference meet at Mackey Arena in West
Lafayette this evening, as the 20th-ranked Indiana Hoosiers tangle with the
Purdue Boilerm
OVC action features 10th-ranked Racers at Skyhawks >>
Martin, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 10th-ranked Murray State Racers will try to
remain the only unbeaten team in Division I as they head to Skyhawk Arena for
an Ohio Valley Conference battle with the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks.
This will be the
TCU seeks upset of No. 17 San Diego State >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sharing the top spot in the Mountain West
Conference standings with 11th-ranked UNLV, the 17th-ranked San Diego State
Aztecs try to keep moving in the right direction tonight as they host the TCU
Horned Frogs at
Rebels and Pokes duke it out in Mountain West showdown >>
Laramie, WY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tied with San Diego State atop the Mountain
West Conference standings, the 11th-ranked UNLV Runnin' Rebels are again out
on the road this afternoon as they tangle with the Wyoming Cowboys at Arena
Auditorium in La
Syracuse and St. John's meet in Empire State showdown >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked Syracuse Orange square off
with the St. John's Red Storm this afternoon in a Big East Conference clash
from New York's famed Madison Square Garden.
Syracuse has won 22 of its first 23 games t
Sportsbook betting odds favor Europe in Ryder Cup
September 19, – Despite holding a decided edge in the all-time series, with 24 wins, 2 ties and 10 losses, Team USA is the underdog again heading into the Ryder Cup in Kidare, Ireland this weekend, according to MySportsbook.com. The Europeans have captured four of the past five editions, including their largest victory ever, an 18 ½ to 9 ½ thumping in Michigan in 2004. Current Ryder Cup betting odds favor the Europeans to continue their winning ways; they are a 4-5 bet to take the title, compared to 6-5 for the Americans.
Despite being knocked out in the first round of World Match play by Shaun Micheel, Tiger Woods is predicted to lead the US charge and be their highest point scorer for the week, with odds listed at 9-4 that he outpoints all other American players, including Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson and Chris DiMarco to name a few. Team USA has four relatively unknown players on the roster but all four are 2007 tournament winners and have posted some of season’s best performances, each earning over $1.5 million on the PGA TOUR. They include Zach Johnson, Vaughan Taylor, JJ Henry and Brett Wetterich.
The experienced European squad includes the likes of Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Padraig Harrington, Jose Maria Olazabal and Darren Clarke, who’s emotions will be tested after the passing of his wife to a battle with cancer. Donald and Garcia are in particularly good form and each is a 5-1 bet to lead the European squad in the points race. Donald has proven he can go head to head with Woods at a major event after a run for the $1.2 million purse at the PGA Championship. Garcia’s Ryder Cup credentials prove he’s ready for battle too.
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Ryder Cup Odds| Europe Tie USA |
4-5 10-1 6-5 |
| Tiger Woods Jim Furyk Phil Mickelson Chris DiMarco David Toms Stewart Cink Chad Campbell Scott Verplank Zach Johnson Vaughan Taylor JJ Henry Brett Wetterich |
9-4 4-1 5-1 7-1 8-1 12-1 15-1 15-1 25-1 30-1 30-1 50-1 |
| Sergio Garcia Luke Donald Padraig Harrington Colin Montgomerie Darren Clarke David Howell Lee Westwood Paul Casey Henrik Stenson Jose Maria Olazabal Paul McGinley Robert Karlsson |
5-1 5-1 6-1 13-2 8-1 9-1 9-1 11-1 12-1 12-1 20-1 25-1 |
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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