Kvitova, Sharapova, Serena reach 3rd round in Oz

Tennis Betting Lines

01/19/2012 - Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second-seeded Petra Kvitova and former Australian Open champions and former world No. 1s Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams posted second-round wins Thursday at the Australian Open.

The Wimbledon and WTA Championships titlist Kvitova advanced, but only after withstanding a test from Spaniard Carla Suarez Navarro. The Czech left- hander lost the second set and was down 2-0 in the third before pulling out a hard-fought 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 victory at Melbourne Park.

Kvitova, who will battle Russian Maria Kirilenko on Saturday, advanced despite piling up 48 unforced errors on Day 4.

"In the beginning it was OK, but I made many, many, many mistakes," Kvitova said. "It's part of my game but it's too many. It was very tough to get back in the third set."

Meanwhile, the fourth-seeded three-time major champion Sharapova, who captured her lone Aussie Open title in 2008, won her second straight match by a lopsided 6-0, 6-1 score, this time by besting American Jamie Hampton in just 64 minutes.

Sharapova did not play in any of the Aussie Open tuneup events the last two weeks.

"It was more about getting my feet going," Sharapova said. "Yeah, started my preparations in the offseason a little late, took a bit of extra time in practice instead of rushing into a tournament."

Up next for the Russian bomber will be German Angelique Kerber.

Williams, seeded 12th and seeking a sixth Aussie Open title, cruised in a 6-0, 6-4 defeat of Czech Barbora Zahlavova Strycova at Laver Arena for her 500th career WTA victory.

The powerful Williams' older sister Venus has also captured 500 wins on the circuit (589-147).

"I knew I had to get there too, because I do everything she does," Williams said of her seven-time Grand Slam champion sister. "It's great, it's like the ultimate."

Serena pulled out of an event in Brisbane two weeks ago due to an ankle injury.

"It's totally fine. It was my good ankle, so I'm good," she said.

The 13-time Grand Slam champion Williams has won her last 16 matches in Melbourne, having titled back-to-back in 2009 and 2010 before missing last year's Aussie because of health issues.

Williams will face Hungarian Greta Arn on Saturday.

Seventh-seeded former Wimbledon and U.S. Open runner-up Vera Zvonareva was also a straight-set winner in second-round action, downing Czech Lucie Hradecka 6-1, 7-6 (7-3), while ninth-seeded former Wimbledon runner-up Marion Bartoli of France leveled long-time Aussie favorite Jelena Dokic 6-3, 6-2.

Zvonareva will play fellow Russian Ekaterina Makarova, while Bartoli will face Chinese Zheng Jie in the round of 32.

Fourteenth-seeded German Sabine Lisicki whipped Israeli Shahar Peer 6-1, 6-2, while Arn outlasted 17th-seeded Slovak Dominika Cibulkova 6-2, 3-6, 10-8, and 18th-seeded two-time Grand Slam champion Svetlana Kuznetsova snuck past promising American Sloane Stephens 7-6 (8-6), 7-5. Lisicki will meet the former top-five Russian star Kuznetsova in the third round.

Some other seeds to advance were No. 21 and former Aussie Open runner-up Ana Ivanovic, who handled Dutchwoman Michaella Krajicek 6-2, 6-3, a No. 27 Kirilenko, who held off Canadian Aleksandra Wozniak 6-4, 1-6, 6-2, and a No. 30 Kerber, a 7-5, 6-1 winner over Canadian Stephanie Dubois. The Serbian Ivanovic, a former French Open champ, will meet American Vania King in her next outing.

Some seeds bowed out here on Thursday, as King took out No. 15 Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 5-7, 6-3, 6-4; Zheng defeated No. 23 Italian Roberta Vinci 6-4, 6-2; Makarova ousted No. 25 Estonian Kaia Kanepi 6-2, 7-5; and Italian Sara Errani eliminated No. 29 Russian Nadia Petrova 6-2, 6-2.

Also advancing on Day 4 was Romanian Sorana Cirstea, who survived Pole Urszula Radwanska, 1-6, 6-2, 6-3. Cirstea stunned U.S. Open champion and heavy Aussie favorite Sam Stosur on Tuesday.

The third round will commence Friday, including matches for world No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki, third-seeded Victoria Azarenka, fifth-seeded French Open champion and 2011 Aussie Open runner-up Li Na, and 11th-seeded former No. 1 and reigning Aussie titlist Kim Clijsters. The former U.S. Open runner-up Wozniacki will take on 31st-seeded Romanian Monica Niculescu; Azarenka will battle surging German Mona Barthel, who captured her first-ever WTA title in Hobart last week; Li will meet 26th-seeded Spaniard Anabel Medina Garrigues; and the four-time major champion Clijsters will be opposed by 20th-seeded Slovak Daniela Hantuchova.

Clijsters topped Li in last year's Melbourne finale.

Also on Friday, eighth-seeded Pole Agnieszka Radwanska and 13th-seeded former No. 1 Jelena Jankovic will take to the courts. The former U.S. Open runner-up Jankovic will battle rising American teenager Christina McHale.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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